Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Election Day Predictions

Today being election day, it's time for my predictions! Let's see how many of these I get right:

1) House of Representatives: the final count will be GOP with 229 seats, Democrats with 206 seats. Nancy Pelosi will step down as caucus leader and be replaced by Steny Hoyer.

2) Senate: the final count will be GOP with 47 seats, Democrats with 50 seats (plus two Independents that caucus with the Democrats, and one (Lisa Murkowski in Alaska) that caucuses with the GOP). Christine O'Donnell will lose with a percentage around 40% of the Delaware vote, and any Republican with a brain will curse Sarah Palin for helping turn a sure winner in Delaware (with Mike Castle) to a sure loser by meddling. Thanks Sarah!

3) In key Governor races, the GOP will win in Texas, Florida, and Illinois. Meg Whitman will lose in California, after having spent over $150 million of her own money, proving you just can't buy an election if you aren't a good politician. In NY, Cuomo will win, but there's going to be a surprisingly strong showing for the Rent is Too High party, as a protest vote.

4) In Maine, Independent Elliott Cutler will make a strong showing and keep it remarkably close, but (sorry to my friends who are backing him) it's been too little too late in getting the Democrats' votes to break for him, and that split plus an electorate that is furious with the "in-party" will give the edge to GOPer Paul LePage.

5) The GOP will have the distinction of having two governors of Indian (of the subcontinent) ancestry in Deep South states--Bobby Jindal in Louisiana and Nikki Haley in South Carolina. Also, Tim Scott is poised to be the first black Republican to represent a district in South Carolina since Reconstruction, and I understand his district is majority white. If you were to tell an 1860s South Carolinian that white South Carolinians would some day elect a black man--of the GOP no less--to represent them in Congress he'd probably spit up his mint julep.

6) The big challenge over the next two years will not be just Obama trying to deal with a resurgent GOP in Congress--it'll be a GOP establishment trying to deal with Palin-Americans trying to "purify" their party and insist on somehow cutting taxes and the deficit without any meaningful spending cuts, using magic. Hold on, it'll be a bumpy ride....


  1. I agree with all of your predictions...except for #2. As bad as things are, the Ds already hold 40 seats I don't think every one of them is going to lose today. When it's all said and done, it'll be more like 52-48 in the Dems favor.

  2. I'm guessing the Ds lose seats in Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, bringing them from 59 to 54--with 2 Indys that caucus with them, so really 52. So that leaves Washington and Colorado. How big a wave we see today will determine those two.

  3. Oops, left out Wisconsin which should be a GOP pickup. So 51, with two tossups (Washington and Colorado). I think Illinois will stay Democratic.

  4. Oops again--forgot Arkansas! GOP will pick that one up too, so that's where the 40 + 2 Indies comes from.

  5. With Bohner taking over as speaker he will be sure to screw things up for the GOP, by shutting the down the government any chance he gets. That is my prediction. And this is how dumb the GOP is, it will all but help guarantee an Obama victory in 2012.

  6. Anonymous--I agree with that prediction.

    Also, I had previously listed my prediction of the Senate seat count--I have corrected my prediction above.